Experimentation Source 5 (Source)

Reference Documentation - Experimentation

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The risk meter is the Risk factor I mentioned above. When it shows 30% risk then you have a 30% chance of getting some kind of failure. The risk only shows up when your rating goes below 100. The formula is scaled so that you can spend all 10 points at master with average MA of 500 without getting any 'risk'. So at master the risk will only show up on very low MA and max points used. Still there's always a chance to get a critical failure on the roll.

Just one thing. The formula above doesn't apply when you experiment on multiple lines at the same time. Then you get an extra penalty.

An example: You have Novice Medic (Skill 10) only and try to make a Liquid Suspension. None of your resources have MA so the rating is 42.5 for your single experiment point. The risk will be 100 - 42.5 = 57.5 which is shown as 57%.

The risk is of limited use for a master with high skill. Having a bar which showed the chance for at least great success would have been much better.